Mudd’s Choice Packs: Who’s Cheatin’ Who? (75% Off Sale Currently Ended)

Good day, and welcome back to Joe and STO!

For a full day and half another remaining, all of Mudd’s Market is 75% off.

…

*hears crickets chirping*

Okay, I know, Mudd’s Market has a bad rap for overpriced stuff, so that 75% may or may not be an actual discount. To sum up most of what you’d see:

• Space and Ground Event Items (denoted by the addition of an Ultimate Tech Upgrade): On par for just the item (which is account-unlocked), 1k-2k ahead in value due to the Upgrade.
• BOFFs: Better than (TOS Enterprise crew) or above (single BOFFs) regular BOFF prices, but considering they’re all previous convention exclusives I’m fine with it.
• Individual Ships:
  • Event ships (T’Pau, S’torr, and Risian corvette) are better than their related Event’s Buyouts (which could amount to upward of 20,000+ Zen’s worth of Lobi with the worst luck).
  • Benthan Cruiser is still above a reasonable price for its capabilities (although it’s a Lockbox ship so that may play into subjective analysis).
  • The Vizier is barely above regular value (3,500 Zen vs. a traditional T6’s 3,000 Zen). Note that the Vizier’s console, trait, and costume are part of the Legendary Sovereign’s, so if you have/are looking to get that Bundle (in the eventuality of its rerelease), the only reason you’d want the Vizier is for the BOFF seating and (what I assume to be) slightly different stats.

Today, though, I want to hit the Choice Packs. Why?

I’ve done two of these entries but hadn’t had time to do the third. You’ve seen if they’re worth your 14,750 Zen (neither is worth the full 29,500 Zen price, especially in comparison to the Legendary Starships Bundle).

But with this sale, even the Choice Packs are 75% off.

*gives readers a moment to do the math, do 25% of 29,500*

That puts each Choice Pack at 7,375 Zen, half the previous lows.

That…changes…everything!

Let’s take a look at a few views of the value proposition these Choice Packs now represent.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS: COMPARE TO C-STORE

One thing players need to look at when seeing if the advertised sale is truly a sale is comparing the sale pricing to something they know, specifically our regular ol’ single-ship T6 C-Store ships.

• C-Store T6 ships can range from 2,000 Zen in select Starter packs to 2,400 Zen each at the (usually highest) 30% discount to 3,000 Zen each at full price.

• Bundles can range from 5,000 Zen for 3 ships (usually the Fleet Admiral/Dahar Master starter-like bundles) to 12,000 Zen for 9 ships (Mega Bundles that offer variations on 3 ships for each Fed, KDF, and Romulans). This puts the effective normal per-ship price between ~1,667 Zen and ~1,333 Zen, but you’re tied to specific ships versus picking and choosing at 2,400 – 3,000 Zen each.

Mudd’s Choice Packs right now are 7,375 Zen, already cheaper than the upper end of Bundle prices but not as low as the lowest T6 bundle. The per-ship valuation gets a tad tricky, depending on the Bundle. Note that only the account-unlocked options are in play here as that’s usually the best value for most players.

• Mudd’s Stealing Time
  • If we view the Temporal Science Vessel and Temporal Destroyer as one ship available to all factions (effectively just 3 different skins) and you pick the Amarie, we have 3 ships being offered for 7,375 Zen, for a per-ship cost of ~2,458 Zen.
  • If we view the Temporal Science Vessel and Temporal Destroyer as one ship available to all factions (effectively just 3 different skins) and you pick the 2x T6 Coupons (available as only 1 pick, I believe), that’s 4 account-wide ships for 7,375 Zen, or a per-ship cost of ~1,844 Zen.
  • If we view the Temporal Science Vessel and Temporal Destroyer as 6 ships (as you’d have needed 1 ship per faction for each before being account-unlocked here), that’s the Temporal Science Vessels (3), Temporal Destroyers (3), and the Amarie for a per-ship average of ~1,054 Zen.
  • If we view the Temporal Science Vessel and Temporal Destroyer as 6 ships and go with 2x T6 coupons, that’s 8 ships for a per-ship average of ~922 Zen.

I don’t care who you are, that last option is exceptional value if that’s how you view these ships. For comparison, Tier 2 ships would cost 750 Zen at regular price, while Tier 3s cost 1,000 Zen. You’d be getting 8 endgame-capable ships (again, considering you’d have had to get each ship individually otherwise) for less than a Tier 2 ship each!

If we take the more traditional choices, being the Science Vessels + Destroyers + Amarie, and we count the Science Vessels and Destroyers as 1 ship each, that’s still a tad over 2,400 Zen each. That is a discount compared to traditional C-Store ships, closing in on the 30% mark that we rarely see each year.

• Mudd’s Faith of the Heart Choice Pack
  • There are only 2 truly account-unlocked ships, but the NX Refit opens up the Point Defense Bombardment Warhead console(which forms a 4-piece set with, among others, the Dynamic Power Redistributor Module) and the Preferential Targeting starship trait to KDF captains as an account-unlock. Also, because we’ve had the Legendary Starships Bundle give us an NX-class ship that has the console and trait, some may see the NX as nothing more than a KDF unlock for the console and trait.
  • If we then view this more like a 2-ship Bundle, the per-ship cost is ~3,688 Zen.
  • If we view the NX as the 3rd ship (perhaps you like the BOFF seating and stats better than the Legendary, or you don’t care for or can’t afford the Legendary Starships Bundle), it’s ~2,458 Zen per ship.

Even if we just see it as 2 ships with some KDF convenience via the NX, we’re not that much above normal value at only 688 Zen over normal. Considering one’s a Lobi ship (meaning it’ll take more than 3,688 Zen to build up the Lobi for it) and the other’s a Lockbox ship that is rarely seen on the Exchange (it isn’t there as of 10:19 PM Eastern on 12/22/2020), I’ll give them the 688 Zen “over par.”

• Mudd’s Choice Pack of Dread!
  • This pack can grant as few as 3 account-wide ships or as many as 6. I’ll cover the 3 and the 6, and know per-ship values will fluctuate between.
  • As 3 ships (Vecrid, Tarantula, and Paradox), this has your standard ~2,458 Zen per ship average.
  • As 6 ships (you just want C-Store ships), the per-ship average drops to ~1,229 Zen.

If you’d wanted the Vecrid, there’s no choice here, you’ll have to buy this Choice Pack and pick it as at least one of your ships if you want a non-gamble way to get it. There are none on the Exchange as of 10:25 PM Eastern on 12/22/2020.

Even if it were on the Exchange, the lowest promo ship price is 404,000,000 EC for the Jem’Hadar Recon Ship…but that’s inaccurate as it’s had a re-release in the Lobi store twice now. The lowest that hasn’t seen an Exchange-sellable re-release is the 987,000,000 EC with the Recon Ship’s cousin, the Jem’Hadar Strike Ship. If we assume the Vecrid isn’t available only because of its relative lack of popularity, we can probably safely say it’s not even worth 1 billion EC.

SLIGHTLY SUBJECTIVE: Zen Equivalent vs. Key Sales

Let’s get a bit more mathy. Let’s assume we go just for the Lockbox/Lobi/Promo ships, would normally buy them from the Exchange, buy Keys for 125 Zen each or 1,125 Zen per 10, and we sell them for 7,800,000 EC each (low enough to ensure sales). I’m not counting Key C-Store sales as there most likely won’t be a Key sale while Mudd’s Market is 75% off.

Let’s look at the Zen-equivalent value in each Bundle (given for sure for ships found on the Exchange at their lowest price as of 12/22/2020):

• Mudd’s Stealing Time Pack (treating the Science Vessels and Destroyers as 1 ship each)
  • Verne and its faction equivalents (“Temporal Science Vessel [T6]”): 794,500,000 / 7,800,000 = 102 Keys = 10 10-packs and 2 singles = 11,250 + 250 = 11,500 Zen.
  • Klein and faction equivalents (“Temporal Destroyer [T6]”): 300,000,000 / 7,800,000 = 39 Keys = 4 10-packs = 4,500 Zen.
  • Amarie: Unavailable, but if we use my previous prices and calculations we’ll see a Zen equivalent value in May 2020 of 20,750 Zen. Whether it’s unavailable due to lack of demand or because it’s jumped above 1,500,000,000 (the Exchange upper limit), I don’t now.
  • TOTAL VALUE: 16,000 Zen on currently available ships; 36,750 using the Amarie’s last known price and Zen-equivalent price.

• Mudd’s Faith of the Heart Choice Pack
  • Xindi-Reptilian Sistruus Escort: 365,000,000 / 7,800,000 = 47 Keys = 4 10-packs + 7 singles = 4,500 + 875 = 5,375 Zen.
  • NX Escort Refit: 300,000,000…alrady done, that’s 4,500 Zen.
  • Elach S’ateth Escort: None currently available, but the last known price was 1 billion EC, making for a Zen-equivalent price as of late July of 17,375 Zen.
  • TOTAL VALUE: 9,875 Zen without the S’ateth; 27,250 with the S’ateth

• Mudd’s Choice Pack of Dread!
  • Tholian Tarantula Dreadnought Cruiser: 450,000,000 / 7,800,000 = 58 Keys = 5 10-packs + 8 singles (realistically you’d pony up for the 10-pack for an extra 125 Zen) = 5,625 + 1,000 = 6,625 Zen.
  • Paradox Temporal Dreadnought: 300,000,000…again! That’s 4,500 Zen.
  • Hur’q Vecrid Hive Dreadnought Carrier: HA HA HA!!! This wasn’t available when I tried looking prior to release in mid-November 2020. Because they’ve said they look at those with lower claim rates, let’s assume the lack of availability is due to lack of choosing it as a Promo ship option. The value would theoretically be lower than the Strike Ship’s 987,000,000 EC, but we’ll assume that level for ease. That comes to 987,000,000 / 7,800,000 = 127 Keys = 12 10-key packs + 7 singles = 13,500 + 875 = 14,375 Zen equivalent.
  • TOTAL VALUE: 11,125 Zen without the Vecrid; 25,500 with it on our assumption it’ll sell as “badly” as the Jem’Hadar Strike Ship [T6].

I think this is clear to see. The worst value is the Faith of the Heart pack, and it still shows a discount of 2,500 Zen versus buying the available ships on the Exchange. The next best is Choice Pack of Dread with a 3,750 Zen discount. The best, though, is Mudd’s Stealing Time with a whopping 8,625 Zen discount!

If you like your percents, here they are:

• Mudd’s Stealing Time: 53.9% Zen-Equivalent
• Faith of the Heart: 25.31% Zen-Equivalent
• Choice Pack of Dread!: 33.7% Zen-Equivalent
• Faith of the Heart and Choice Pack of Dread at 3,000 Zen per ship: 18%
• Stealing Time assuming 2 3-ship bundles (6,000 each) and a single ship: 50.8%
• Stealing Time assuming 2 3-ship bundles and 2x T6 coupons: 59%
• Choice Pack of Dread if you choose 6 T6 coupons: 59%

SOMETIMES, THE CON MAN OFFERS DECENT DEALS

Mudd’s Market gets a lot of flack for its sales discounts being less than stellar, and rightfully so. When I did my overall Mudd’s Market write-up in July, I noted 75% is about the discount percent where you’d feel what’s in Mudd’s Market is at least reasonable (though you’d want to try for 80%+, but those are rare. I’m surprised we got 75%, honestly).

We have a 75% sale for an extremely limited time, and in it for the first time are the Choice Packs, so we’re reasonably certain it’s at least on par with what we could expect out of the C-Store or very close to it.

What I hope I’ve proved is that this discount applied to the Choice Packs beats Mudd’s Market’s rap for bad deals. While expensive individually, each Choice Pack is well worth its temporary 7,375 Zen price.

That all being said, do not overspend or spend more than you really want to.

• COVID has hit many people hard. You may not have a job, you may be working on reduced hours (thus reduced pay, most likely), and/or you’ve been through COVID and are paying off those bills for treatment, things like that.
• Your budget doesn’t allow for the purchase.
• You never wanted these ships (in whole or part).
• It’s still too high for where you’d need them to be to buy.
• The Zen Charge Bonus isn’t enough.
• Food, clothing, and shelter take priority (no joke!).

There are many reasons why you may still not buy these Choice Packs, to which I say…that’s fine.

Sales are indeed as much a psychological trick to get you to spend when you hadn’t planned on spending as they are a legitimate offer to help out that company’s customers as a “thank you” for being a loyal patron (and in physical goods, it’s to clear out stuff you’ve had sitting for far too long, but that’s specifically a physical retail issue).

I feel this isn’t just about getting your money, otherwise we’d have seen 50% off the Choice Packs and 75% off the rest of the Market. At 75%, I feel this is both a year-end “thank you” and something for their metrics to see what price point is acceptable to get people to buy these packs. Who knows? Perhaps they throw out the Choice Pack thing and throw 3 specific Lockbox/Lobi/Promo ships for 15,000 Zen, discounted as much as 50% to 7,500 Zen, because of this?

All I know is that, for once, “Mudd” isn’t conning anyone but himself. These are legit deals.

You have until 1:00 PM (Eastern) Christmas Eve on that price. My advice is if you have the cash available, grab what you can while you can. Hit Cryptic where it hurts when they’re wrong, but when they’re offering Lockbox/Lobi/Promo ships at a discount over even traditional C-Store T6s I think you have to treat them right and at least consider purchasing, if not actually grabbing, at least one of these Choice Packs.

As always, though, do as you’re able and willing. You know what you can manage in-game. You know your budget, what you can financially afford. You know how much time you put into STO and if this provides enough fun-per-dollar versus, say, spending for a month of HBO Max for the family to watch Wonder Woman 1984.

Also, $70 isn’t exactly pocket change. That could be a decent take-out night, part of a grocery bill, new clothes for school, etc. In this case, it’ll seem like a lot even at such a steep discount. To this I say, remember STO is just a game. The talk from Cryptic is as if log-ins are fine and it’s financially stable if not improving. Most likely, it’ll be here for years. By then, you may be in a better financial position and can pick up at least one of these even if they’re only 50% off (where that subjective value starts coming into play as only Stealing Time is for sure worth it at 50%, though all of them should be when accounting for ships missing from the Exchange).

I do hope everyone is having a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukah, Happy Kwanza, Happy New Year, and general Happy Holidays to those I missed mentioning. I’ll try to post 1-2 more times before work ramps back up, but if not you can always catch me on Twitter @cardgamenut.