Now & Later: When’s the Best Time to Buy “Mudd Is In Command?”

Hello, once again, Joe and STOers! Now that the Value Series of the blog is out, I’ve come across a bit of a connundrum about buying this Choice Pack.

No, it’s not if there’s enough value to justify buying it. That’s been answered already.

No, it’s not about the ships themselves. There’s no question they’re all capable of putting out great DPS numbers (even if some will never hit the overall top ranks of DPS, but they’re plenty powerful enough to do Elite content.)

It’s about the possibility of Muddsday.

“Muddsday? What’s That?”

“Muddsday” was a 2-day sale last year that put the entire Mudd’s Market at 75% and relisted “Mudd’s Stealing Time”, “Mudd’s Faith of the Heart” , and “Mudd’s Choice Pack of Dread” Choice Packs.

But there was something odd here…they were available at 75% off! That put them down to 7,375 Zen each, or around $80 USD of pure cash purchasing for the Zen (no Dilithium Exchange trading to make up the difference from 7,000 Zen to 8,000 Zen).

Compare this to $140 when the Bundles were half off or $270 when they’re not on discount and we see that’s a huuuuuge savings! That would put ships at around $27 each, which matches C-Store full price on regular T6 ships.

So far, it’s only happened once. But “once” is enough for players to hope it happens again this year.

What may hurt is that we have the “Mudd is in Command” Choice Pack now, during a Black Friday Zen Charge Bonus, and is probably realistically at its 2nd-best price point.

So…what’s better? Should you buy “Mudd is in Command” now at the Black Friday prices, or should you wait for a possible sale for “Muddsday” where they might re-run the 75% off sale with Bundles included?

Let’s do an objective analysis by looking at various discount levels without extra Zen Charge Bonuses, then we’ll look at the discount levels with the Black Friday 2021 Zen Charge Bonus intact. You’ll notice 60% is listed as a possible discount. While it’s only happened once, the fact that it happened at all opens us up to the possibility that it could happen again. Also, I’m assuming that if “Muddsday” happens again and if there are any discounts, they’ll apply to both the Choice Pack and the MEGA Bundle versions.

Price Comparisons

Using Standard Zen Charge Amounts

Let’s look at a standard part of the year, where there’s no extra Zen Charge Bonus until you hit the $50, $100, and $200 charge levels. I expect no Zen Charge Bonus during “Muddsday” if it happens again this year at any discount level. I’m also assuming that if a “Muddsday”

Notice the cash price differences from 50% to 60% to 75%.

• There’s a $30-$60 advantage buying at a possible 60% sale versus the traditional 50% sale.
• There’s another $30-$70 advantage buying at a possible 75% sale versus a possible 60% sale.
• The overall difference from 50% to 75% is $60 on a Choice Pack or $130 on the MEGA Bundle.

Using Black Friday 2021 Zen Charge Bonuses

Now let’s look at using the Black Friday Zen Charge Bonuses compared to the current 50% sale and buying Zen now with your mind toward a possible 60% or 75% for Muddsday, if it happens (that’s a lot of “possible”s and “if”s, which will be part of my overall point toward the end of this post).

Hmm…our differences don’t look so big now.

• From 50% currently to a possible 60% in about a month, we see only a $20 difference on a single Choice Pack purchase and a more meaningful $40 difference in the MEGA Bundle.
• If we compare 60% off to 75% off, we see another $40 drop-off for a singe Choice Pack and another $70 drop-off for the MEGA Bundle.
• The overall difference from buying now at 50% versus buying the Zen now and waiting for a possible 75% off is $60 on a Choice Pack and $90 on a Mega Bundle.

While the drop-off from 50% to 60% isn’t too steep, we see there’s some potentially sharp drop-off in cash price if you buy Zen now and wait for a possible 75% off sale. For as little as $60, you could have 2 of the best ships in the game (Section 31 Command Heavy Battlecruiser and Voth Rampart Command Flight Deck Carrier) and your choice of either of the other two ships. Who could argue with 3 Lockbox/Promo ships for $20 per ship?

What if we mix-and-match our situations? What would be the difference with, say, Black Friday with the current 50% and theoretical Muddsday discounts of 60% and 75%, both utilizing the current Zen Charge Bonus in anticipation of potential discounts and if you were to wait to get Zen during what would most likely not be a Zen Charge Bonus period?

Comparing Current Sale to Non-Bonus 60% and 75%

For this, I won’t compare 50% off with no extra Zen Charge Bonus as we’re in the midst of probably one of the best Zen Charge Bonus weeks we’ve had in a while. It would be foolish to wait to grab Zen later if Muddsday happens and at 50%. We might as well buy the Choice Pack now, if that were the case.

This scenario also assumes we won’t buy Zen until we know there’s a Muddsday sale, and we’d only know that toward the end of next month. In this case, we wouldn’t buy Zen now but only wait until we know for sure when/if there will be a Muddsday sale. Chances are, there won’t be a Zen Charge Bonus. If there is, it probably won’t be as high as we have now (I’d forecast 20% at best if there will be one).

This seems interesting, to me.

• The difference from buying a single Choice Pack now to buying Zen later at a theoretical 60% off is only $10, even though it’s a ~$30 difference in the Zen price. That 30% bonus Zen happening now means a ton now versus not having one later. Similarly, for the MEGA Bundle, it’s only a $20 difference despite a ~$60 Zen price difference.
• The difference from buying now to buying at a theoretical 75% off is $40 for a single Choice Pack and $90 for the MEGA Bundle, despite a ~$70 drop in the Choice Pack and ~$150 drop in the MEGA Bundle.

“What Exactly Are You Saying?”

Likely Player’s Thought Process

I think the most likely analysis someone will bring up is buying at 50% now versus waiting for Muddsday and buying at 75% off, whether you buy Zen now and sit on it until late December or if you buy Zen when the sale goes live.

We see possible savings of $40-$60 on a single Choice Pack and $90-$110 on the MEGA Bundle.

It seems like a no-brainer to wait…right?

My Theory for Muddsday

Here’s my take on what Muddsday may have in store for us this year:

OPTION 1:

• It will happen.
• It will discount non-Bundle items by 75%. This would be consistent with most deep-discount sales for Mudd’s Market, especially at the same time last year.
• Bundles will be included and all will be listed.
• Bundles will not be 75% off but instead be 50% off.

OPTION 2:

• It will happen.
• It will discount non-Bundle items by 60%. This would basically flip the sale from last year, where Black Friday was 60% off and Muddsday was 75% off.
• Bundles will be included in the discount and re-listed.
• Bundles will not be 75% off but instead be 60% off to match the rest of the store.

I know, I know, not a popular take! But I think it makes the most sense. Having 75% off Bundles last year was a no-brainer purchase decision if you had the freed-up cash to do it. But it also left people wondering if they should wait for Muddsday again this year. Who wouldn’t want 3 Lockbox/Lobi/Promo ships for less than the price of 3 standard C-Store ships?

I think Cryptic will go for a mid-line approach: They’ll want a deep discount to help year-end sales figures, they know 50% is popular, but doing another 75% off sale on Bundles will discourage early adopters next year as they’ll just wait for late December to purchase what they want. For this reason, I feel the discount rate will be 50%-60%.

Why do I choose 60% as a possibility? Again, 50% is good, but 60% provides a meaningful discount while keeping the price of a single Choice Pack over $100. Let’s look at normal 50% versus normal 60% again:

There’s a $30 difference in the normal prices for a single Choice pack by dropping the price another 10% from normal discounts. We see a significant $60 discount on the MEGA Bundle (again, assuming MEGA versions are at the same discount rate). It becomes a bit more palatable to Cryptic to not drop below $100 for a single Choice Pack, it puts the Lockbox/Promo ships closer to $30 each (~$36.67 equivalent), and it gives a nice discount to those who waited while still allowing players who bought earlier to feel okay with paying $30 more to get more time with their ships/items that they wouldn’t have had if they’d waited.

However, 50% is usually seen as fine as long as at least two ships in the Choice Pack will beat that $140 price tag, so Cryptic could just feel that re-listing every Bundle at 50% is good enough and leave it at that.

My personal theory will be Option 2: a 60% sale on everything, including “Mudd is in Command” and a re-list of every Mudd Choice Pack and MEGA Bundle (so long as you have the ability to get a MEGA Bundle, since buying a Choice Pack of a set that had a MEGA Bundle disqualifies you from the MEGA Bundle).

“What Would You Do, Then, Concerning ‘Mudd is in Command’?”

Excellent question and exactly why I love numbers. Let’s compare the current Black Friday and 50% off mix to our theoretical 60% option for Muddsday 2021, both at normal Zen Charge pricing and if we were to buy Zen now in anticipation of this theoretical Muddsday:

I don’t see a ton of difference, honestly.

• From Black Friday 50% Off to just waiting and buying Zen at the time you know the 60% sale’s going to hit, you’re only saving $10 on a single Choice Pack or $20 on a MEGA Bundle by waiting.
• If you buy Zen now in anticipation of a 60% off sale versus someone who waits for the 60% to be announced, the person who buys now only saves $10 on a single Choice Pack and $20 on a MEGA Bundle.
• If you buy Zen now and wait a month at 60% off versus buying now at 50% Off, you only save $20 on the Choice Pack and $40 on the MEGA Bundle.

We’re only talking a $20-$40 difference in prices (up to $20 on a single Choice Pack, up to $40 on the MEGA Bundle). And remember, the Muddsday figuring I’m doing is all theoretical. I have no inside knowledge, I have no magical crystal ball telling me what will happen, and I have no time travel technology to go see what will happen.

We could very well get a 75% off Bundles sale, and you could be in for a decent amount of savings compared to 50% off now. BUT…but…if you buy Zen now in anticipation of it compared to someone who waits until it’s officially announced, you won’t save much and have cost yourself a month without those ships/items.

MY OVERALL CONCLUSION

The only way you win big is in this scenario:

If you are betting on 75% happening and buy Zen now, you could save $60 per Choice Pack you wanted (including the current “Mudd is in Command” Choice Pack) and $90 on each MEGA Bundle (of which we’ve only had two: “Into the Wormhole” and “Mudd is in Command”).

Any other scenario compared to today only saves $20-$40 on a single Choice Pack, which is an option for all Choice Packs released so far and is the only option for the majority.

For “Mudd is in Command,” I’d recommend just getting what you want now while you know you have a Zen Charge Bonus and you know there’s a 50% discount (which is normal for newly-released Choice Packs anyway). The only scenario that works out extremely well for the player is, in my and a few others’ opinions, not very likely to happen. I expect a more conservative Cryptic for this Muddsday, so the differences in buying “Mudd is in Command” now compared to a month from now are too small to not just go ahead and buy now.

You Do You

After all is said and done, after you’ve seen the numbers and how everything could pan out, you and only you can make the decision that’s best for you.

• Are you a risk-taker? Or, can you use the Zen anyway, you’re just waiting to see if you can get an even better deal? Buy Zen now and wait on the “Mudd is in Command” Choice Pack or MEGA Bundle. I believe the second-worst scenario will be a 50% Off sale, which means you’re no worse off in a month than you would be today for how much Zen it’ll cost you. (The absolute worst scenario is no discount, whereby it is easily the best thing to buy “Mudd is in Command” while the Black Friday sale and Zen Charge Bonus are still active.)

• Are you risk-averse? Do you want to go for the guarantee over the chance? Buy the Choice Pack or MEGA Bundle now. It’s that simple. We don’t know what deals, if any, we’ll get for Muddsday, if it runs again. I feel it’s best in this scenario to go with what you know than to wait on an unknown future.
• Do you prefer to get your Zen only when you know there’s a sale (assuming there will be one)? You only save about $10-$20 buying Zen now as opposed to later at any discount rate, so there’s not enough price difference to worry about buying Zen now and holding it. I say save your money and see what Muddsday brings, if anything. This way, you’re not tying up your cash in a digital game-only currency that may have little use if deals don’t materialize like we’re expecting. In this case, the only way you lose out on “Mudd is in Command” is if there is zero discount or a discount under 50% in late December, which I see as highly unlikely.

And that wraps up what has become a 3-part series on “Mudd is in Command.” If you’ve read everything, I applaud your attention spans and thank you for putting up with horrible grammar, misspellings galore (I’m sure), and rough sentence structures. If you’ve only read the highlights, you may want to re-read to be sure you’re understanding what I’m saying.

I hope these have all helped you with determining how to treat yourself regarding the newest Mudd Choice Pack offering. Whatever you decide, enjoy the game the way you want to enjoy it. This may be my last blog post for 2021, so if it is I wish you all Happy Holidays and a Happy New Year!